drhdbnd.info

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

“No soup for you!” This became the cry of the “Soup Nazi” in one episode of the popular series Seinfeld when it was on. The plot is that one of the crew eats soup that is to die for, and the others won’t believe soup can be so good until they try it. When they go to the shop that sells the soup, there is a long line of people wanting this soup. Each person methodically and silently moves through the line, reaching and taking without talking to the chef. One of Jerry’s friends (or maybe it was him? anyway…) commits a horrible faux-pas and talks to the chef and doesn’t do something the way he should and ends up banned from the soup line, with the grouchy chef yelling this famous line after him as he leaves.The Soup Nazi came to mind the other week when I was musing over the latest nutrition fad to hit the market. Because I market liquid whole food nutrition as supplements to healthcare practitioners and those involved in the nutrition field, I hear a lot of people telling clients some pretty strange things. It’s not wrong to try something that someone you trust recommends. However, when someone issues mandates and absolutes about diets without the science to back it up, I start getting perturbed. So, I’ve coined a term for the people who are so far at the end of the nutrition spectrum that they have fallen off: Nutrition Nazis.A Nutrition Nazi is someone who requires another person to eat a plate of peas for lunch every single day. A Nutrition Nazi is a person who scares other people into eating certain foods with such authority that all types of (insert a certain food category) are eliminated from the diet. A Nutrition Nazi is a person who will not accept any other suggestions offered to a client if it is not made by them. A Nutrition Nazi will not accept clients if they do (insert something here that seems random) or don’t do (insert something else that seems random).Actually, you have probably seen Nutrition Nazis on TV (maybe even on Oprah!). You may have met one, or even followed one for awhile. They are people who make other people feel bad if they aren’t like them. They use nutrition as a reward and as a punishment. They look great, and they are healthy. But they make one mistake in their training that is a deal-breaker:They tell people to do things that aren’t enjoyable!I do believe in many, many things about nutrition that science, experience, and history back up as wise practices. These things come from all different sources. Anyone who converts his/her nutrition habits to even 20% of them would at least experience a greater sense of well-being and would be investing in their future good health. And I know better than to tell people to do these things.Good nutrition cannot be presented to clients as a god to please. I have yet to meet one person who craves failure, and to hold good nutrition up as something high to aspire to will create failure. So much in our culture that doesn’t relate to the stuff on our plates is twisted up in foods that I refuse to address clients in such black and white terms. If you happen to meet a Nutrition Nazi, I strongly suggest asking them up front what they won’t let you eat. Follow that with a question of what is the one food you should eat everyday. If they answer any food after question one, don’t sign any papers. If they tell you something odd, expensive, or yucky, make a one-eighty and tell them you’ll think about it. I hope you’ll think about how odd or expensive or yucky that food would be to eat everyday, and then think about finding some other sources (yes, plural) to help you grow in this area.